Rumor is a type of information that is widely shared but cannot be confirmed as true. For example, your neighbor may tell you that a celebrity stopped in town for ice cream and everyone overheard their conversation. But until you see a photo of the superstar yourself, that rumor is only a rumor.
The word rumor comes from the Latin word for noise (rumori). People often use rumors as a way to pass on trivial information. For instance, if you hear someone talking about a friend who is leaving the country, you might share that rumor with your friends. But rumors can also be more serious, like when you hear that an earthquake is imminent. These types of rumors can cause panic in society.
People spread rumors to cope with anxiety and uncertainty. They can help explain why a person might leave for work late or why the road ahead is blocked, and they can support social and emotional needs. Rumors can be especially valuable when official sources are incentivized to hide information, such as when energy companies bury pollution or government agencies cover up incompetence.
Despite the importance of rumoring, there is little research on how to effectively manage it. A major challenge is to understand how rumors are produced and transmitted. In the past, scholars have used terms such as misinformation and disinformation, but these labels are increasingly problematic. Mislabeling content that is later shown to be valid – such as the theory that COVID-19 began with a lab leak – undermines public trust, threatens authorities’ credibility, and thwarts progress on consequential issues such as strengthening democracy and improving public health.
In a study on the topic, researchers looked at archived discussions of rumors from social media sites and computer networks. They classified each participant as an ignoramus, a believer, a spreader, or a sifter. Then they analyzed the contents of each discussion to identify the key components that predict rumor spreading and management.
The most important predictor of a rumor is whether it raises anxiety. This can be due to either a personality or situational trait, such as an anxious temperament or the feeling that one’s own competence is being threatened. It can also be due to a specific need, such as the need to feel included in a group or a desire for status. In addition, ambiguity and the perceived importance of information are also key predictors. If the rumor is not interesting, or if it does not raise an individual’s level of anxiety, it will not spread. But if the rumor is a threat to an individual’s self-image or social identity, it will spread rapidly.