Rumor is a form of communication that aims to influence public perception of events and issues, often with a distinctly negative spin. It is a kind of gossip, but it has the power to spread and become true at a much faster rate than ordinary conversation. Rumor is a common phenomenon in human communication, but it can have serious consequences when it goes awry. Recognizing the factors that drive rumors can help people to recognize them and mitigate their effects.
An important factor in the creation of a rumor is anxiety, both personal and situational. People who have an anxious personality or are in an anxiety-lifting situation tend to create and propagate rumors in order to relieve their insecurities. Ambiguity is another key factor, as rumors often have several different versions and interpretations.
A rumor has more chance of spreading when it is new and unusual, but it also needs to be compelling. Novelty can be heightened by a sense of urgency (such as a deadline for returning ballots), or by using familiar techniques to motivate sharing (like a story about discarded ballots). Novelty may also be increased by the presence of certain forms of evidence, such as surveillance videos, images, screenshots of erroneous election results, first-person accounts from voters, and other material that lends a tangibility to the claim.
The rumor’s impact on outcomes that matter to the audience is also an important consideration, both as a motivator for spreading and a deterrent against doing so. The rumor’s impact can be boosted by the presence of “emotional appeal” as well, such as anger or outrage, or by its ability to villainize specific individuals, social groups, or political parties.
Finally, a rumor’s momentum can be impeded by the amount of time it takes to verify its accuracy. While this is a factor that can be outweighed by other factors, it remains important to consider in all cases, especially in situations with high levels of uncertainty and low trust in official sources.
Understanding these dynamics can help a person recognize rumors and decide whether or not to share them. By incorporating these factors into the communication process, it is possible to make decisions that minimize the harm caused by a rumor and maximize its positive impact. This can be as simple as pointing out the origin of a rumor, such as identifying a gossipy friend who is circulating a piece of information. Or it can involve more systematic monitoring and reporting, such as a program in which widely-trusted neutral intermediaries contact stakeholders involved in a conflict to identify rumors and investigate their reliability. This approach can be particularly effective in settings where it is difficult to distinguish between genuine and fabricated reports, such as in a conflict involving an unfamiliar country or region. For more on this topic, see here.