Rumor is a type of information that spreads from person to person. It can have many consequences, both good and bad. For example, it can make or break a celebrity, place of business, etc. Whether the rumor is true or not, it can influence the behavior of crowds, sometimes for good and other times for ill, such as provoking riots. In the age of social media, rumors can go viral very quickly and have devastating effects on reputations.
Traditionally, rumor has been defined as unsubstantiated information that spreads from person to person in a chain of communications without verification. Scholars like Gordon Allport defined a basic law of rumor that states that the strength of a rumor is proportional to its significance and uncertainty multiplied by the degree of ambiguity surrounding it. More recently, new research has taken a more sophisticated approach to studying rumors and how they impact crowds. Using the power of social media, researchers can study the spread and resolution of a rumor and its effects on people.
In this paper, we propose a new model of rumor spreading based on personality. Personality describes intrinsic human characteristics that describe how a person behaves and perceives the world around them. The model predicts that if a rumor is more credible and relevant to a person’s life, they will be more likely to believe it and spread it. The model also predicts that if a rumor has more negative than positive consequences, it will be more likely to be believed and spread.
To test this model, we analyzed archived discussions of rumors from several social media sites. Each statement was coded as one of the following: prudent, apprehensive, authenticating, interrogatory, providing information, belief, disbelief, sense-making or digressive. We found that the model does indeed predict the propagation of rumors and their subsequent resolution. Moreover, the model is able to predict crowd classifications for each individual participant in a discussion.
We found that an individual’s personality is a significant factor in determining the probability that they will become a “rumor spreader.” In addition to this, we found that an individual’s personality also has an effect on how they respond to a rumor. For example, a person with an apprehensive personality is more likely to be skeptical of a rumor. We also found that a person’s personality has an effect on how fast a rumor spreads and its effect on the overall audience. The results of our study are promising and can help practitioners understand the nature of a rumor threat. Our findings can then be used to formulate more effective strategies for responding to a rumor threat. By recognizing the informational and emotional drivers of a rumor, we can better target our interventions. In particular, if we recognize that a rumor is a way for individuals to cope with anxiety and uncertainty, we can create messaging that encourages a person to seek truth instead of acting on the rumor.