Rumor is a kind of socially constructed information that may or may not be true. A rumor may or may not be circulated by mainstream media, but it is often shared on social networks and in forums where it can gain traction with a large audience. Rumor is a form of participatory media that has become an important source for public opinion on important political events. Rumor has been studied from many different perspectives, from psychological studies to computational analyses.
The first step in understanding a rumor is to consider its origins. Rumors do not spread themselves, but are transmitted by people who either share a story that they have heard or create their own rumor from scratch. Researchers have identified three ways that a rumor might evolve as it moves through a community: leveling, sharpening, and assimilation.
Another important aspect of a rumor is its evidence. A rumor with no evidence will not survive long, as it will be dismissed as false. People are also more likely to believe a rumor if it fits their current beliefs and desires. For example, if a person wants to see a particular celebrity brought down in the eyes of the public, they might start a rumor about them going to a small town to meet with fans and sign autographs.
Finally, the rumor’s importance in a community will determine its ability to catch on and gain momentum. If a rumor is too trivial, it will be ignored; however, if a rumor has significant credibility in a given social network, it can become viral quickly.
In order to understand how rumors can spread, researchers have analyzed thousands of Twitter discussions around major events such as elections and natural disasters. These discussions were archived and annotated using a system of codes. The resulting timelines showed that a rumor’s veracity status (either unverified, proven, or found to be false) was an important factor in determining how fast it spread.
In addition, other factors that contribute to a rumor’s success include its novelty and familiarity. New rumors have to be exciting and interesting, but they must also be familiar enough to appeal to people’s existing perceptions of reality. Familiar elements in a rumor such as discarded ballots or rigged machines help it to fit into a personal universe of “things that have been known to happen before.” The resulting sense of plausibility can be enough to propel the rumor forward. The same holds true for a rumor about the world’s end, or a pipe dream that reflects a person’s innate desires and beliefs. This explains why so many of the world’s most successful rumors are, in fact, unfalsifiable. As the Internet has shifted the balance of power between individuals and institutions, so too has it impacted rumor’s role in society. Today, it is easier than ever to start a rumor, and its potential reach has never been greater. Whether it is a simple text message, an image, or a YouTube video, anyone can become the publisher of a rumor.